In different phrases, this story might have much less to do with Mr. Biden, and will even be the uncommon Trump-related story that has much less to do with Mr. Trump. Somewhat, it’s a story about Mrs. Clinton and sexism — a “gendered” view of the candidate, as Ms. Greenberg put it — through which the potential of the primary girl president raised the significance of points like feminism, abortion and the tradition wars, all of which assist clarify the gender hole within the first place.
“She was not popular with giant numbers of the general public, however particularly by unbiased and Republican males,” stated Eric Plutzer, a professor of political science at Penn State College. “There have been alternatives for Biden to win again a few of that demographic.”
The pool of married males was additionally very completely different final yr than in 2016. The Cooperative Election Research requested respondents whom they’d supported in each 2016 and 2020, and located that married males weren’t significantly more likely to have switched between the events, Dr. Schaffner stated. Nonetheless, due to demise, divorce and marriage, the composition of this group modified. It obtained youthful and extra millennial. And that meant it obtained extra Democratic.
“This isn’t your father’s married man,” Dr. Schaffner stated.
Certainly, the elections analyst Nathaniel Rakich floated a principle on a latest podcast that the sharp enhance in mail-in voting final yr — when, because of Covid-19, quite a few states made that choice simpler and unprecedented numbers of voters selected it — led to extra married {couples} discussing their votes, maybe even seeing one another’s ballots, and that this, in flip, led to extra straight-ticket family voting. And if married males moved towards the Democrat whereas married ladies have been constant, it might appear likelier that husbands acceded to their wives reasonably than the other. “Spouse Guys” for Biden?
Ms. Greenberg stated it was unattainable to know if this had occurred, however famous that “vote-by-mail was closely Democratic.”
Lastly, a giant story of the election was a divide amongst voters based mostly on schooling, as these with school levels moved towards Mr. Biden and people with out headed towards Mr. Trump. That might assist clarify the shift amongst married males, who’re more likely to be center class, Dr. Schaffner stated.
